Rearranging The Deckchairs

Frank O'Dwyer's blog

Climate Projection

\ image DK: close-minded, pusillanimous, ill-informed moron.\ * demonstrably incorrect about global warming\ * \ Over at Devil’s Kitchen, DK demonstrates projection, and gets every point of substance wrong while calling someone else an ill-informed idiot. First we have:\

The entirety of the global warming theory is predicated on (fudged) computer modelling and inaccurate data.

Well, for the sake of argument let’s suppose for the moment that there really is a global conspiracy among climate scientists to fudge computer models and to fake data. As conspiracy theories go this is slightly, but only slightly, more plausible than the notions that hollywood faked the moon landings, Israel brought down the WTC, and space aliens stole New York City overnight and replaced it with an exact replica. But let’s go with it. Even then DK appears to be skipping lightly over a number of items such as the observed warming, the many independent lines of evidence for it (including not only melting icecaps and glaciers, but the valiant attempts of denialists including DK himself to explain it without invoking CO2). Then there are the observations of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere, the isotope evidence that it is man-made, the observations of CO2 infrared absorption in the lab and from space, and the droughts which are explained only by warming. Oh, and the little matter of the physics of greenhouse gases which has been known and uncontroversial for over 100 years - that is, until it all added up to a problem that wingnuts couldn’t solve by cutting taxes, raising prison sentences, prayer, or bombing the middle east. And boy, all those birds and butterflies are going to be mad as hell when they realise they left their previous habitats all because they were fooled by fudged computer models and inaccurate data! Given all that, the only explanation for DK’s strange outburst is that he is exceptionally ill-informed or lying.\ \ Next up is a graph of CO2 over the past 500 million years:\

It’s worth reading the whole of that post in order to understand how those warm periods relate to CO2 (or, rather, don’t particularly).

Actually it’s worth reading the cited paper so that you realise that it is about long term climate change, i.e. change on tectonic timescales and thus has sweet FA to do with global warming on shorter timescales…such as for example the last century or the last 30 years. To put that in perspective, if you were to plot the emergence of modern man (homo sapiens, c. 130,000 years ago) on the graph DK cites, it would look a little like this:\ \ image\ But it gets worse. No fact-free denialist rant would be complete without at least one canard that has been rebutted countless times already, so DK doesn’t disappoint and takes “global warming stopped in 1998” for yet another whirl around the dancefloor. In fact, global warming did not stop in 1998. Even leaving aside the blatant cherry picking of 1998 (a record year) as starting point, that claim is garbage. However as Tamino points out: garbage is forever.\ \ Technorati Tags: globalwarming projection climate